“In the morning, you will usually see a range of moisture present in each cup. The salt can be completely dry, have a slight ...

FORECAST.ETS applies an exponential triple smoothing (ETS) algorithm to create forecasts that can include trend and seasonal ...

Imagine you are sailing a ship through dense fog, looking out for land. Your lookout spots species of birds typically found offshore. It now seems likely that you are approaching land, but it is ...

At first glance, forecasting behavior might seem far-fetched—can we really predict how people will act? It's a fair question. But just as we once questioned whether we could reliably predict the ...

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election forecast model. This article explains how we did it: the ingredients that go into the forecast, ...

Corporate income tax (CIT) collections are among the most difficult revenues to forecast—even with adequate staffing, comprehensive data, and a stable tax design. In practice, forecasting units ...

NEW ORLEANS (WVUE) - Hurricane Katrina hit with unexpected force in 2005, catching many off guard despite days of warnings. Nearly two decades later, forecasters say they now have sharper tools to ...

An inverted rate yield curve – that is, a long-term interest rate that falls to or below the short-term interest rate – seems to have a track record of predicting recessions. The question of leading ...

Some of the most popular indicators for forecasting recession suggest that the US may be headed toward a prolonged downturn, if not in the next year, then in the next four. But, given these indicators ...